Economic Outlook

 

 

Euler Hermes’ Economic Outlook gir deg en oversikt over de siste makroøkonomiske tendenser og konkursutvikling.
Publikasjonene utarbeides av spesialister og økonomer fra Euler Hermes over hele verden. De behandler tidsaktuelle temaer innen forskjellige land, sektorer og bransjer og hjelper deg til å vurdere global risiko og nye muligheter i markedet.

 

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Latest Issues​

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Economic Outlook, May 2017 - Retail, Disrupted: Pressure and Potential in the Digital Age


Special report

Euler Hermes’ Digitail (Digital Retail) survey measures risks related to the rapid digitization of the retail sector. Our scorecard aims to gauge the digital pressure and digital potential based on ten indicators in twelve countries.

It is derived from secondary data such as financials and national statistics, as well as in-house expert judgment from 1,500 credit analysts and underwriters around the world. Omni-channeling, cost of online presence, and mobility are perceived as the top three industry disruptors. Yet there is much regional and local divergence.


Economic Outlook Jan 2017

Economic Outlook, January 2017 - Superheroes, sidekicks and villains - The Guardians of the economy


Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook

Global GDP growth is expected to end up at +2.5% in 2016, showing resilience in spite of the many economic and political hurdles. In 2017, growth should pick up to +2.8%, staying below +3% for the seventh consecutive year.




Outlook-jan-2017

Economic Outlook, January 2017 - Insolvencies: Tip of the iceberg


Insolvency report

In 2016, companies struggled to stay resilient despite robust support from policymakers. Strong deflationary pressure and subdued global demand made life harder for businesses. After two years of substantial declines in insolvencies, in 2016 our Global Insolvency Index will record a limited drop of -2%.

Economic Outlook: Trade wars

Economic Outlook, October 2016 - Trade Wars: The Force Weakens


Special report

Global trade growth weakens to +2.1% in 2016 in volume. In 2017, it would grow by a modest +3.1%. Demand shocks, the super slump in commodities prices, currency war, and domesticalization (lesser dependence on trade) explain this disappointing performance. In the medium-term, because of structural shifts and financial fragmentation, growth in the volume of world trade is expected to stay below +4% annually. In this context, companies will have to find new alternatives – such as digitalization - to expand their business.



Economic Outlook Automotive Market September 2016

Economic Outlook, September 2016 - Public bumpers for the automotive market

 

Special report

The global auto market remains divided. On the one hand, Europe, China, and the United States will post strong growth. On the other, India is stagnant, Japan is floundering and Russia and Brazil continue their dizzying drop. Greater intervention by public policy in market dynamics is one clear trend. Another is the growing fascination with and investment in the future of the sector and in particular electric and autonomous cars.


Outlook-august-2016

Economic Outlook, August 2016 - The Price of Growth

 

Global growth

Global growth could slow this year to +2.4% and might accelerate marginally in 2017 (+2.7%).  The slowdown in prices has pushed down nominal growth, turnovers, and trade. This priceless growth is set to cause a rise in insolvencies by +1% this year and in 2017. Net consumers, importers, and debtors benefit from low prices and yields, while net producers and exporters, savers and creditors are having a hard time.

Outlook-july-2016

Economic Outlook, July 2016 - Around the world in eight maps

 

Economic trends

This edition offers an atlas consisting of 8 maps which all depicts economic trends across regions and countries, sectors and industries: Global GDP growth, global trade, corporate's cash pile, Days Sales Outstanding, insolvencies, collection complexity, sector risk and country risk.

Outlook-february-2016.jpg
 
Global Sector Outlook  
This August, Brazil will host the 2016 Summer Olympics. Rio
2016 promises to be not only a major multi-sports event but
also a magnifying lens on Brazil’s worst recession since the
1990s. In preparation for this year’s Olympiad, we looked at
the fierce competition among companies around the world.
 
 
Outlook-Jan-2016

Macroeconomic and Country Risk Outlook​
​​2016 obviously got off to a flying start with another round of fear factors coming all the way from China. One bad leading indicator coupled with stumbling circuitbreakers sufficed to trigger a stock market and currency carnage and get the planet to worry about China and the world.